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Thugs R Us
March 30, 2008: Somalia has become too
dangerous for aid agencies. The clan
militias have gotten greedy, and been
stealing so much of the aid, and
plundering the aid organizations as
well, that the flow of foreign food and
medical help is stopping. About a third
of the population is safe in the
relatively calm north (independent
Puntland and Somaliland). But
in the south, a third of the population
(some two million people) there are
refugees, or in areas suffering severe
doubt. In pre-colonial times, this would
have caused a massive famine, killed off
about 20 percent of the population, and
brought peace. But these days, aid
groups keep everyone fed, and fighting.
No one has a fix for this conundrum, or
a technique for achieving peace. Note
that, last year, some 7,000 Somalis died
in the religious, clan and crime based
violence, compared to Afghanistan, where
6,000 died (in a nation with four times
the population of southern Somalia).
The Islamic Courts Union (ICU) gives the
appearance of making a comeback, but
this is a media illusion. The ICU has an
ally (Eritrea) and ICU publicists in
Eritrea are able to issue dramatic
reports (of Islamic militant activities)
to foreign journalists based in Eritrea.
The ICU puts a positive spin on the
anarchy in Somalia, giving the illusion
that someone (the ICU) is winning. But
the Transitional National Government (TNG)
and Ethiopian troops still have the most
firepower, and control the most
territory. The problem is that the ICU
and TNG fighters are largely
undisciplined bandits, who steal from
anyone who is unarmed. The world is
unwilling to supply troops to protect
the foreign aid providers. So the
nations is facing a foreign aid crises
when food can no longer reach starving
refugees and drought victims.
The pro ICU clan population in Mogadishu
have largely been driven out of the
city, and some 250,000 of them are
living along 15 kilometers of the main
road west of the city. This impromptu
refugee camp is the base for ICU
fighters who go into Mogadishu, and
another group or two that drive around
central Somalia, raiding pro-government
towns for food, guns, fuel and whatever
can be carried away in a pick-up truck.
On a positive note, the UN announced
that a ten year effort to eradicate
polio (by vaccinating nearly every child
under five) has succeeded, and the
country is free of the paralyzing (and
often fatal) disease (which can only
survive in humans). Polio should have
been eliminated world-wide by now, but
there has been resistance from Islamic
clergy in some countries, who insist the
vaccinations are a Western plot to
sterilize Moslem children. This has
enabled polio to survive in some Moslem
countries (Nigeria, Pakistan). The
disease also survives in some very poor
nations because of the difficulty in
getting vaccine to remote areas.
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